This post was originally published on this site
Ahead of Georgia’s two U.S. Senate runoff elections on Tuesday that will determine the balance of power in Washington, betting markets are signaling some confidence in the Republican Party’s prospects, while polls indicate a slight advantage for Democrats.
Betting market PredictIt gives Republicans a 65% chance of staying in charge of the Senate as of Thursday. Other sites that enable wagers on politics, such as BetOnline, also have the GOP favored to keep its grip on the 100-seat chamber.
Republicans already control 50 seats following November’s elections and can remain the majority party by winning just one of the two Georgia races. They then would provide a check on policies backed by Democratic President-elect Joe Biden and the Democratic-run House of Representatives.
But Democratic challenger Rev. Raphael Warnock leads Republican incumbent Sen. Kelly Perdue by 1.8 percentage points in a RealClearPolitics moving average of polls for one of the Georgia runoffs. And in RCP’s average of surveys for the other Georgia contest, Democrat Jon Ossoff is ahead of GOP Sen. David Perdue by 0.8 percentage point. To be sure, pollsters are coming off a rough November in which they missed badly on some races.
“I think the races are closer than the betting odds would suggest,” said Stephen Innes, chief global market strategist at Axi, a broker, in a note on Wednesday. Innes also said the Georgia runoffs could be “the next key catalyst” for traders, but added that “a Democratic sweep with such a tight majority should not mean aggressive corporate tax hikes as the market SPX, -0.10% may fear.”
Related: If the Democrats win the Senate, Big Tech better be ready for a bigger fight
Many analysts view the Georgia races as nail-biters, and some have warned that winners might not be declared for days, as happened in the 2020 presidential contest.
“This election is about as close as you can get,” wrote J. Miles Coleman and Niles Francis in a recent analysis for the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. “It’s hard to tell who has the edge, but undoubtedly, the party that does a better job turning out the base will be the party that carries the day.”
With turnout considered critical, both Biden and President Donald Trump have campaigned for their party’s candidates in Georgia, and they are slated to make final in-person appeals to Peach State voters on Monday. Biden defeated Trump in Georgia by less than 12,000 votes.
See: Biden to campaign in Atlanta on eve of Georgia’s Senate runoffs
Also: Trump plans to campaign on Monday in Georgia county with low early voter turnout
Plus: After four days of early voting, record turnout seen in Georgia’s runoffs
More than 2.8 million Georgians, or 36% of the state’s registered voters, have cast ballots early in the Senate runoffs as of Thursday, according to U.S. Elections Project data. Georgia law has required the runoffs because no candidate received more than 50% of the vote in November.
THE MONEY RACE
Thanks to the importance of the two Senate runoff elections, Georgia has seen massive spending on ads and other campaign activities, with some analysts predicting that overall outlays by campaign committees and other groups could reach $1 billion.
There had been total of $453 million in media spending as of Dec. 17, according to a an estimate from AdImpact, an ad-tracking company that previously was known as Advertising Analytics.
The Democratic challengers’ principal campaign committees have the edge in fundraising over their GOP counterparts, according to disclosures that cover financial activities from Oct. 15 through Dec. 16.
Ossoff, a documentary filmmaker, reported raising $107 million during that period, above $64 million for Loeffler, a former financial-services executive whose husband heads the New York Stock Exchange’s parent company ICE, +0.28%. Warnock, pastor at Atlanta’s storied Ebenezer Baptist Church, brought in $103 million vs. $68 million for Perdue, the former CEO of Dollar General DG, -0.60%.
But among outside groups and party committees spending in Georgia, Republicans have had more money to shell out, according to an analysis from the Center for Responsive Politics. In any case, the bigger spender doesn’t always win in politics, as incumbent Republican senators managed to defeat better-funded Democratic challengers in November’s contests in Maine, South Carolina and other states.
Notable issues in the Peach State’s races have included Loeffler’s and Perdue’s controversial stock trading, as well as their recent embrace of Trump’s push for $2,000 stimulus checks for Americans.
Now read: Georgia’s runoffs on your mind? Here’s what you need to know
Also see: Georgia Democrats campaign in Cobb County amid scarce early voting locations
