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This winter could be ‘the most difficult time in the public health history of this nation,’ CDC director Robert Redfield said recently.
Photo by Frederic J. Brown/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images
As the United States battles its third COVID-19 surge, a recent report suggests what may have helped drive increased case numbers in recent months.
Social distancing, the public-health recommendation that people maintain at least six feet of physical distance from one another to reduce the risk of COVID-19 transmission, “has decreased dramatically since the spring,” according to an analysis by researchers at Northeastern, Harvard, Rutgers and Northwestern Universities.
In one silver lining, mask wearing — which scientists now say protects the wearer in addition to those around them — has increased, according to the report.
The authors, part of a multi-university effort called the COVID States Project, traced a “general upward trend” in many activities that convene people from different households indoors: For example, the share of survey respondents who said they or a member of their household had been in a room with people from outside their household in the past day rose from 26% to 45% between April and October.
“ ‘Social distancing significantly relaxed after May, and the disease — not vanquished over the summer, and now lurking everywhere — reasserted its presence with the cooler weather in the fall, beginning in states that had the lowest adherence to social distancing.’ ”
Over that same period, the share of respondents reporting they’d been in groups of 11 to 100 or more in the past day increased from 2.4% to 6.4%.
What’s more, “the states that have had the lowest levels of social distancing behavior and mask wearing are currently suffering the worst outbreaks,” the report said.
States in the Northeast and on the West Coast, which have greatest exposure to international travelers, were first to be hit by the virus, the authors noted. As the whole nation then began practicing social distancing, the virus “substantially subsided.”
“Social distancing significantly relaxed after May, and the disease — not vanquished over the summer, and now lurking everywhere — reasserted its presence with the cooler weather in the fall, beginning in states that had the lowest adherence to social distancing,” the authors added.
Rates of adherence to avoiding contact with other people, steering clear of public and crowded places, frequent handwashing and disinfecting surfaces — all behaviors recommended by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention — hit all-time lows in October, the researchers wrote.
But mask wearing “steadily increased through the end of August, and has held steady since then,” they added. Some 77% of respondents said they were adhering “very closely” to mask-wearing recommendations in November.
Substantial partisan gaps in behavior, particularly with regard to social distancing, also widened over the past six months: While Democrats and Republicans both decreased their social distancing and increased their mask wearing, Democrats were slower than Republicans to decrease social distancing and faster to increase mask wearing.
The report analyzed monthly surveys with thousands of respondents conducted since April in all 50 states and Washington, D.C., as part of an ongoing research effort.
With that said, “there is some hint of a counter trend” in the final wave of surveys, the authors said, potentially due to the current COVID-19 surge. Several health-related behaviors have moved modestly in the direction of virus suppression, they said.
Another recent report by the same research group found that on average, “substantial majorities” of Americans — 60% or more — polled in November say they support all seven restrictive measures the researchers surveyed, including asking people to stay home and avoid gatherings (85%), canceling major sports and entertainment events (78%), and restricting international travel to the U.S. (88%).
The U.S. recorded 216,548 new COVID-19 cases on Thursday and at least 2,857 deaths, down slightly from the record 2,885 deaths recorded Wednesday, according to a New York Times tally. The country has averaged 180,327 daily cases over the last week, and Thursday saw a record 100,667 COVID-19 hospitalizations.
CDC director Robert Redfield warned Wednesday that the U.S. death toll — 277,958 as of Friday afternoon, according to Johns Hopkins University — could be close to 450,000 by February. He suggested that this winter could be “the most difficult time in the public health history of this nation, largely because of the stress that it’s going to put on our health-care system.”
President-elect Joe Biden, meanwhile, told CNN on Thursday that he would ask Americans to wear a mask for his first 100 days in office to slow the spread of COVID-19. He said he would also issue a standing order that masks are worn in places where he has authority, such as on interstate transportation or in federal buildings.
“Just 100 days to mask, not forever,” Biden said. “I think we’ll see a significant reduction.”
