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That’s according to consultancy Bain.
It predicts sales of expensive handbags and the like will drop 23% this year to 258 billion dollars.
That’s actually at the better end of a forecast range it gave in the spring.
Back then it said sales might drop as much as 35%.
But the outlook could yet get worse again, with fresh lockdowns in Europe among factors that might further sap sales.
China is the one bright spot.
Sales on the mainland are seen growing by 45% at current exchange rates to about 52 billion dollars.
Demand there has surged since the country emerged from lockdowns in the spring.
Bain says revenues for the likes of Louis Vuitton and Prada (OTC:PRDSY) should partially recover in 2021.
But it predicts that it could be 2022 or even later before luxury sales recover to pre-crisis levels.
The consultants say this year’s events have also accelerated other trends.
Consumers stuck at home have driven a near-doubling in online sales of high-end goods.
And the global travel slump has seen more people splash their cash at home, not on overseas jaunts.
