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The global case tally for the coronavirus illness COVID-19 climbed above 54.5 million on Monday, while the U.S. tally topped 11 million after adding 1 million new cases in six days, with 50 states and territories recording rising numbers and the virus showing no sign of slowing.
The U.S. leads the world by case numbers and deaths at 246,224, according to data aggregated by Johns Hopkins University. In each case, it is about a fifth of the global tally.
“ ‘The virus is not going to stop and call a time-out while things change (during the administration transition). The virus is just going to keep going.’ ”
The U.S. has averaged more than 150,000 cases in the last week, according to a New York Times tracker, an increase of 81% from the average two weeks ago. There are currently a record of 69,987 COVID-19 patients in U.S. hospitals, according to the COVID Tracking Project, topping the previous record of 69,455 set a day ago and up 87% from a month ago.
Raymond James analyst Chris Meekins said the warning earlier this year from Dr. Anthony Fauci, head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, that the U.S. could get to 100,000 cases a day, “is turning into a goal instead of a threat.”
“This is only going to continue, in our view,” he said. “Significant, and in our opinion underappreciated, economic damage resulting from this latest swell is possible without a meaningful fiscal relief package from Congress.”
Experts are increasingly worried that incumbent President Donald Trump’s refusal to concede the election to Democrat Joe Biden and allow his administration to clear the way for Biden’s transition will lead to ever more cases, hospitalizations and fatalities.
“We are on the verge of a humanitarian catastrophe and approaching potentially 400,000 Americans who could perish by the early part of next year,” Dr. Peter Hotez, dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine and professor of pediatrics and molecular virology and microbiology at Baylor College of Medicine, on CNN.
By January, when the formal transition will take place, 2,000 to 2,500 Americans will be dying every day, according to the projections of the Institute for Health Metrics, he said. That means COVID-19 could be the single leading cause of death in the U.S. daily.
“I can’t think of a more important time in modern American history when we need a smooth transition. The fact that this is the time it won’t occur will only mean greater loss of life,” he said.
Fauci agreed that the transition is important and said he is concerned about the current standoff.
“As you know, I’ve served in six administrations so I’ve seen a number of transitions… You just want things to go very smoothly…transitions are important,” he told NBC. “The virus is not going to stop and call a time-out while things change. The virus is just going to keep going,” he said.
There was hopeful news when biotech Moderna Inc. said its vaccine candidate achieved 94.5% efficacy in an initial analysis of data from a late-stage trial. Moderna’s news comes just a week after Pfizer Inc. and partner BioNTech SE said they achieved a slightly lower 90% efficacy rate in a Phase 3 trial of their vaccine candidate. Both announcements sparked a broad-based rally in beaten-down travel and entertainment stocks while sending the stocks of companies that have benefited from stay-at-home directives lower.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +1.48% was last up 338 points, while the S&P 500 SPX, +1.11% was up 0.8%.
Fauci said the Moderna numbers were “really quite impressive.”
“Now we have two vaccines that are really quite effective,” Fauci said on NBC’s “Today Show.” “I think this is a really strong step forward to where we want to be about getting control of this outbreak.”
Fauci is expecting doses of vaccine to be available for high-risk individuals by the end of December, and urged Americans to respond meanwhile by doubling down on safety measures, “to be able to use the combination of a vaccine and public health measures to turn this thing around. We can do it,” he said.
Medical experts cautioned last week that the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine may prove to be less effective in the real world than in the lab, as MarketWatch’s Jaimy Lee reported.
“In the clinical trial, you select the patients that you like, and you follow them very closely,” said Mizuho Securities analyst Difei Yang. “In the real world, there’s all kinds of ages, and everyone has different underlying health conditions.”
With no word from the White House on the pandemic, states and localities are taking measures of their own to contain the spread. In the latest examples, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s administration ordered high schools and colleges to stop in-person classes, closed restaurants to indoor dining and suspended organized sports — including the football playoffs — in a bid to curb the state’s spiking coronavirus cases, the Associated Press reported. The restrictions will begin Wednesday and last three weeks.
Washington Gov. Jay Inslee has announced new restrictions on businesses and social gatherings for the next four weeks as part of the state’s efforts to slow the spread of the coronavirus.
In other news:
• U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson is self-isolating in his official residence after meeting with a member of Parliament who was later found to be infected with coronavirus, as talks between the U.K. and the European Union on a future trade deal enter their last stretch, MarketWatch’s Pierre Briançon reported. Johnson said in a video clip that it didn’t matter that he was “bursting with antibodies” after being infected by COVID-19 earlier this year: “We’ve got to interrupt the spread of the disease,” he pleaded, adding that he was “full of optimism and confidence” about the U.K.’s ability to end the pandemic.
• Sweden has announced that it is limiting public gathering to eight people, down from a prior limit of 300, the Guardian reported. Prime Minister Stefan Lofven told reporters that this is the new norm for the entire country. ““Don’t go to gyms, don’t go to libraries, don’t host dinners. Cancel,” he said. Sweden has caused controversy by its unconventional response to the pandemic, during which it has relied on its own citizens to be responsible and comply with safety measures, instead of imposing lockdowns. As a result, Sweden has far more cases than neighboring Nordic countries such as Finland which has 19,419 confirmed cases compared with Sweden’s 177,355, the Johns Hopkins data shows.
• German Chancellor Angela Merkel is planning to push for tougher restrictions, including face masks in schools and limits on gatherings, Agence France-Presse reported. Merkel is scheduled to meet with state leaders on Monday. The chancellor will suggest canceling all private parties until Christmas and that children should select one friend to meet up with outside school hours.
Guest Farmworkers Risk Covid-19 Inside Crowded Motels
Latest tallies
The number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 world-wide now stands at 54.5 million, the Johns Hopkins data show, and the death toll is 1.3 million. At least 35 million people have recovered from COVID-19.
Brazil has the second highest death toll at 165,798 and is third by cases at 5.9 million.
India is second in cases with 8.8 million, and third in deaths at 130,070. Mexico has the fourth highest death toll at 98,542 and 10th highest case tally at 1 million.
The U.K has 52,206 deaths, the highest in Europe and fifth highest in the world, and 1.4 million cases, or seventh highest in the world.
China, where the disease was first reported late last year, has had 91,850 cases and 4,742 fatalities, according to its official numbers.
What’s the economy saying?
The New York Fed’s Empire State business conditions index fell 4.2 points to 6.3 in November, MarketWatch’s Greg Robb reported. Economists had expected a reading of 13.5, according to a survey by Econoday.
Any reading above zero indicates improving conditions.
The new-orders index fell 8.6 points to 3.7 in November while shipments fell 11.5 points to 6.3. Inventories remained in negative territory. Optimism about the six-month outlook inched higher.
See: Here are 7 ways Biden can improve U.S. health care
The Empire State survey is the first manufacturing survey among several regional snapshots for November. The sector has been recovering steadily on stronger domestic and international demand and economists expected a rebound. But the rise in COVID-19 cases may have led to some pullback in activity. The national ISM factory index rose to 59.3 in October from 55.4 in the prior month, the second biggest monthly gain since May 2009. The November data will be released early next month.
What are companies saying?
• Mattress in a box seller Casper Sleep Inc. CSPR, -17.90% reported a wider-than-expected third-quarter loss on revenue that surprisingly declined, citing supply chain challenges as a result of the pandemic. Direct-to-consumer sales fell 11.4% as the closure of its European operations and depressed foot traffic as a result of the pandemic, was partially offset by a “modest” increase in North America e-commerce sales. The company expects fourth-quarter revenue of $132 million to $142 million, below the FactSet consensus of $143 million. “Challenges in our supply chain, including industrywide shortages in textiles and chemicals critical to foam production, led to significant out-of-stock inventory both in our direct-to-consumer and retail partnership channels,” said Chief Executive Philip Krim.
• Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. HLT, +2.48% plans to offer $1 billion worth of senior notes, due 2029 and 2031. The hotel operator plans to use the proceeds from the debt offering, and available cash, to redeem all of the outstanding 4.250% senior notes due 2024. The stock surged 5.2% in premarket trading, as part of a rally in hotel stocks after upbeat news from Moderna Inc. on its COVID-19 vaccine candidate.
• Tyson Foods Inc. TSN, +3.09% reported fiscal fourth-quarter earnings that beat expectations and declared a dividend for fiscal 2021. Tyson saw volumes increase across beef, pork, chicken and prepared foods. Tyson incurred $200 million in COVID-19-related expenses for the quarter, and $540 million in expenses for the fiscal year. Those expenses include production facility downtime and personal protection equipment (PPE). For fiscal 2021, Tyson expects revenue of $42.00 billion to $44.00 billion with a 1% increase in domestic protein production. The FactSet consensus is for Tyson revenue of $44.12 billion. On Nov. 13, Tyson raised its quarterly dividend to $0.445 per share on Class A common stock and $0.4005 per share on Class B common stock, payable on Dec. 15 to shareholders of record as of Dec. 1.
