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Traders poured almost $1.8 billion into BlackRock Inc (NYSE:BLK).’s iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (NASDAQ:TLT) exchange-traded fund (TLT) last week — the most since it began trading in 2002, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
After a wild week for markets, equities pushed higher on optimism over economic stimulus and speculation that President Donald Trump may soon leave the hospital. Still, a volatile election season combined with fears of a second wave of coronavirus hindering the economic rebound are motivating some traders to shift toward safety.
“Looking at longer-dated Treasury bonds has traditionally been the place to hedge equity risk,” said Matt Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management. “Around the election, you’ve got all these different types of positions to hedge.”
A large portion of the TLT inflow — more than $1 billion — came Friday on news the president had fallen ill with Covid-19, prompting a selloff in stocks and a surge in volatility.
Still, with bond yields at historic lows, the traditional portfolio of 60% in equities and 40% in fixed income has been called into question as traders search for more lucrative ways to invest. According to Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist for Leuthold Group, the case for long-dated Treasuries is “terrible.”
“I get that there’s fears, which is probably the explanation, but I don’t quite understand it,” he said.
Although the long end of the yield curve has given buyers better yield, a reopening economy could lead to the curve steepening even more, turning such positions into losing trades, said James Pillow, managing director at Moors & Cabot (NYSE:CBT) Inc.
“The only thing that makes sense is that the fear of a global second wave drove some investors into the long bond,” he said.
©2020 Bloomberg L.P.
