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Massachusetts voters on Tuesday are casting their ballots in closely watched Democratic primaries, with Sen. Ed Markey facing a Kennedy in one race, while another could end the career of a powerful House chairman and shake up Washington’s approach to taxes, trade and health care.
Markey — a “Green New Deal” co-sponsor who has been endorsed by influential Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez — has a sizable advantage in recent polls over his opponent, Rep. Joe Kennedy III. In a RealClearPolitics moving average of polls as of Tuesday, Markey is up by 11 percentage points.
But a Kennedy has never lost a congressional race in Massachusetts, and this Kennedy, who is RFK’s grandson and JFK’s grandnephew, has scored notable endorsements as well, such as from House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
In the other closely watched Massachusetts Democratic primary, House Ways and Means Chairman Richie Neal is facing a challenge from a more progressive Democrat, Holyoke Mayor Alex Morse.
“This race has special importance for investors because the incumbent, Rep. Richard Neal (D., Mass.) heads the House Ways and Means Committee, which has jurisdiction over all tax legislation and trade policy, and plays a major role in health XLV, -1.37% policy,” said Height Capital Markets analysts in a note on Tuesday.
“If Neal were to lose to challenger Alex Morse, control of the committee would likely shift to progressive Lloyd Doggett (D., Texas), a sponsor of the ‘Green New Deal,’ and ‘Medicare for All’ who would then be in charge of tax, trade, Medicare and Social Security policy.”
Neal has drawn flak during the race for receiving campaign contributions from the insurance industry KIE, +0.47%, private equity giant Blackstone BX, +0.66% and other corporate heavyweights.
“Neal is right to not be complacent, as multiple prominent Dems have fallen to younger challengers running on a theme of ‘generational change’ in recent years,” the Height analysts said, referring to losses suffered by veteran New York congressmen such as Joe Crowley, who was “primaried” by AOC in 2018, and Eliot Engel, who was ousted by insurgent candidate Jamaal Bowman this summer.
“While polling suggests Neal enjoys a lead heading into today’s vote, this is still a key race to watch for investors.”
There is also a crowded Massachusetts Democratic primary contest on Tuesday for the House seat that Rep. Joe Kennedy III isn’t trying to hold since he’s hoping to become a U.S. senator.
