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July data from the Labor Department, combined with a Harvard University study, show the likely Democratic unemployment rate at 11.7% and the probable Republican rate at 7.6%, Jed Kolko, chief economist at jobs website Indeed, said in a Twitter thread Thursday. Measures such as the prime-age employment-population ratio have rebounded more for GOP leaners too, Kolko said.
The estimates reflect the recession’s impact on minorities, women and big cities, because they predict a respondent’s vote based on demographic variables including age, race and sex. The figures may also provide some background for the stalemate between the White House and congressional Democrats over a new aid package after $600 a week in federal benefits expired at the end of July.
President Donald Trump used executive actions over the weekend to redirect disaster-relief funds to provide $300 a week in federal aid to the unemployed, plus $100 in state funds after Congress could not agree on a new stimulus package.
Trump has touted his strength on the economy as a reason why voters should reelect him in November. Yet the disparity in the pandemic’s impact could potentially fuel more votes for Democratic challenger Joe Biden, who leads in polls.
“Like past recessions, unemployment is higher for African-Americans and Hispanics,” Kolko said on Twitter. “But unlike past ones, this is more a big-city recession and a ‘shecession.’” The virus has caused women to lose jobs at higher rates due to factors including their likeliness to work in the service industry and a disproportionate rate of child-care responsibilities.
©2020 Bloomberg L.P.
