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We wore our masks. We kept our distance. We spent the past three months locked inside. And as a result of those extraordinary sacrifices, we reduced the death count, flattened the infection curve and arrived at the brink of opening again.
Take a bow, New York.
OK, enough bowing. There’s a whole new reason for alarm, even beyond the rioters trashing stores in Midtown.
The massive protests against police brutality and racial injustice, sparked by George Floyd’s brutal death in Minneapolis, have public-health experts raising a fresh concern. Is all the progress against the coronavirus being blown in a massive wave of angry protests, as public outrage collides with a viral catastrophe and dooms us all over again?
“There’s going to be a lot of challenges coming out of the events of the past week,” warned Dr. Scott Gottlieb, former commissioner of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and one of the sharper voices on the coronavirus crisis. “Chains of transmission will have gotten lit by large gatherings. I don’t think there’s really a question about that.”
New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo raised the same fear at the start of the week.
“We’ve spent 93 days limiting behavior,” a frustrated Cuomo said. “And now mass gatherings with thousands of people in close proximity, one week before we’re going to open New York City? What sense does this make?”
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What makes the calculation even harder is the inevitable lag between each fresh infection and the scientific data proving it’s occurred. “We won’t know possibly for weeks,” Cuomo cautioned. “It’s the nature of the virus.”
Cuomo and New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio are trying to walk a careful line here between safety and the First Amendment. They have invited the protests, which they’ve called right and just. Both men have been unequivocal: People have a right to demonstrate, as long as they do so peacefully. As he announced an 11 p.m. curfew Monday night, Cuomo praised “peaceful protests in pursuit of long overdue change.” De Blasio has spoken similarly. The mayor’s daughter, Chiara, was among those arrested at one event.
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At the same time, both Cuomo and de Blasio have adamantly condemned the violence and President Trump’s militarized response. And both New York officials are emphasizing how easily the coronavirus can spread at mass gatherings. The last thing anyone wants is to delay New York City’s reopening, the first phase of which is set to begin on June 8.
But businesses, closed for months, have now been hit by looting. And no one can say how much good tonight’s 8 p.m. curfew will do.
So here these officials are, squeezed as no elected officials ever want to be: The COVID hot zones are the protest hot zones too. And one group is again taking more than its share of the casualties. African-Americans account for nearly 23% of COVID-19 deaths across the U.S., though they make up just 13% of the population. There are no good statistics on the racial breakdown of the rally crowds and the pain that has brought them out. But even a cursory view makes clear that they are intensely multicultural.
And does anyone need to be reminded that George Floyd was a black man and the officer now charged with his murder, Derek Chauvin, is white? Didn’t think so.
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There was some reason for optimism as the protesters hit the streets again on Monday night. The biggest was the cool early-June breeze.
The virus, most health experts agree, is less of a threat outside than it is indoors. That’s only natural. Since the protesters are gathering on the streets, they are likely getting some protection from the natural air flow. And many of the demonstrators are also wearing masks, which reduces though doesn’t eliminate the spread of virus-carrying droplets.
But almost certainly that won’t be enough. Social distancing is nearly impossible at a spirited march and rally. Hundreds or thousands of protesters can’t gather in close proximity and not expect to trade something more than slogans.
That’s been proven over and over again in the course of this deadly pandemic. Early on, at a single choir practice in Mount Vernon, Washington, 52 people were unknowingly infected, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Two choir members died.
Note to protesters heading to the street: Please be careful when you chant, “I can’t breathe.” But don’t even think of singing “We Shall Overcome.”
No one can say how many fresh coronavirus cases might flow from the mass gatherings, which occur as houses of worship are reopening in some states and larger public events are being permitted in others. But the health concerns are real enough that Cuomo issued a special plea to New Yorkers:
“Don’t snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.”
Ellis Henican is an author based in New York City and a former New York City columnist.
