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Strategists only expect the Euro Stoxx 50 Index to rise another 3.8% from Monday’s closing level to 3,023 by the end of the year, according to the average response in a poll by Bloomberg News. That will still leave the benchmark down 19% in 2020. They predict the broader Stoxx Europe 600 Index will close at 361, about 5.6% higher by the end of 2020.
While European stocks rebounded strongly in April from the rout spurred by widespread coronavirus-induced lockdowns, the gains have lost momentum in May. Optimism over stimulus measures and the easing of restrictions has given way to bleak economic and earnings reports, and worries about a second wave of infections. Making matters worse, deteriorating rhetoric between the U.S. and China has stoked renewed fears of a trade war.
The degree of uncertainty related to the pandemic is prompting a wide range in strategists’ predictions. Deutsche Bank AG (NYSE:DB) is among the most bullish forecasters, calling for the Stoxx 600 to close the year at 440, or about 29% higher from here. At the bearish end of the spectrum, ING Groep (AS:INGA) NV expects a 9.2% drop.
They see a 0.5% decline from Monday’s closing level through the year’s end for the cyclical-heavy DAX Index of Germany. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index fares better in their estimates, set to rise another 4.3%.
For tables on the Euro Stoxx 50 and Stoxx 600 polls click here; for a table on the DAX poll click here, for a table on the FTSE 100 poll click here.
©2020 Bloomberg L.P.
