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As the planet gets warmer, severe storms are getting stronger.
That’s according to a study released Monday, which warned that hurricanes, typhoons and cyclones — collectively known as tropical cyclones — are now more likely to develop into a Category 3 storm or higher than they were four decades ago, due to human-caused global warming.
Researchers from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the University of Wisconsin analyzed 40 years of satellite images, including infrared temperature measurements to estimate hurricane intensity. They found that in almost every region of the world where hurricanes form, their maximum sustained winds are getting stronger.
And these storms are more likely to reach Category 3 status or reach more severe levels on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, with wind speeds clocking in between 111 and 129 miles per hour. “Devastating damage will occur,” according to the scale, with major damage to homes, trees being uprooted or snapped, and electricity and water being unavailable for several days to weeks. But a Category 5 storm like Hurricane Dorian, which devastated the Bahamas last September, barrels down with sustained winds of 151 miles per hour, making most of an area uninhabitable for weeks or months.
“The change is about 8% per decade,” study lead author James Kossin from NOAA told CNN. “In other words, during its lifetime, a hurricane is 8% more likely to be a major hurricane in this decade compared to the last decade.”
While the study notes that natural weather cycles can increase or decrease the strength and frequency of storms year over year, it argues that human-caused climate change is driving the rise in storm intensity. As global warming raises the temperature of the ocean’s surface in the areas where tropical cyclones develop, it explains, the storms become more powerful more frequently.
And this builds on Kossin’s previous research, which has found tropical cyclones are traveling farther north and south than before, so previously less-affected coastal communities are now at greater risk of getting hit by one of these storms. NOAA has also presented evidence that these storms are traversing across land more slowly as the Earth’s climate warms, which means storms hover over cities longer and cause more damage.
“Our results show that these storms have become stronger on global and regional levels, which is consistent with expectations of how hurricanes respond to a warming world,” Kossin added in a statement.
NOAA plans to release its 2020 hurricane forecast on Thursday, which other research groups have anticipated will be an active season with eight hurricanes and 17 named storms, compared with an average season with six hurricanes and 12 named storms.
The storm season is already off to an early start: Tropical Storm Arthur is currently traveling up the coast of the southeastern U.S. near the Carolinas, weeks ahead of the season’s normal June 1 opening date.
