Six Assets Rule Them All After Virus Wreaks Havoc Across Markets

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Treasuries. Gold. Dollars. Bunds. The Swiss franc. Yen. Across 25 major assets, these six are the only ones destined to deliver a positive return for the first three months of the year, according to Bloomberg calculations.

At first glance, it’s a case of old-school havens once again proving their worth, this time in the face of a virus that has brought major economies to a halt and ripped through markets.

But consider: The Treasury market was plagued by liquidity concerns for weeks. Gold volatility hit the highest since the 2008 crisis. The dollar just had one of its worst weeks since 1985. Bunds have been pressured as Europe mulls further stimulus to blunt the impact of the virus, and even joint euro-area bond issuance.

That these assets still come out on top speaks to the scale of the turmoil everywhere else.

The VIX Index, a measure of expected price swings in the S&P 500, is set for its biggest quarterly jump on record as the benchmark U.S. stock gauge is poised to record the worst run since 2008. European equity volatility is also heading for its largest quarterly jump as the Stoxx Europe 600 flirts with the worst performance ever.

But the biggest loser in absolute terms, inevitably, has been oil. In a remarkable series of events, the world’s largest crude suppliers started a price war at the same time as demand cratered thanks to the pandemic. The commodity is facing the worst quarter in history.

Those declines dwarf the losses across stock markets, which are led by a gauge of emerging-market shares, Europe’s benchmark and an index of world equities.

©2020 Bloomberg L.P.