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Democratic presidential hopeful Amy Klobuchar could be viewed as a winner of the New Hampshire primary alongside Bernie Sanders, while Joe Biden appears increasingly on the ropes, analysts said as they assessed the contest’s results.
New Hampshire’s primary on Tuesday was the country’s first as the Democratic Party’s White House hopefuls fight to become the nominee who will take on President Donald Trump in November. Sanders, the Vermont senator, won in the Granite State, narrowly topping nearest competitor Pete Buttigieg, the former mayor of South Bend, Ind., while Klobuchar, the Minnesota senator, finished third, ahead of Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts in fourth and Biden in fifth.
“The real winner is Klobuchar,” said Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, in an email to MarketWatch. “Her debate win on Friday catapulted her from obscurity to real contender. She’s a moderate and Minnesota businesspeople by and large say she’s easy to work with.”
Meanwhile, Henrietta Treyz of Veda Partners said Biden, the former vice president, and Warren “clearly had disappointing nights, but Biden (and Warren to a lesser extent) have a far more expansive field presence than either Klobuchar or Buttigieg in the upcoming voting states.”
“Nevada can’t come fast enough for Joe Biden,” Treyz also said.
Analysts also were doubting Sanders’ chances of becoming the nominee even after his recent success. The Vermont senator won New Hampshire four years ago with 60% of the vote vs. less than 30% this time around, said Treyz, who is Veda’s managing partner and director of economic research. Treyz, who has argued that “at least 70% of the Democratic electorate wants someone else,” said Tuesday’s results are indicating that his support has eroded since 2016.
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Tuesday’s contest took on added importance after Iowa’s first-in-the-nation caucuses a week ago were marred by technical problems and delays. Sanders claimed victory in Iowa as he led in the popular vote, but Buttigieg declared victory as well as he won there in the delegate count, the traditional measure of success in Iowa.
Ahead of Tuesday’s voting, not all Wall Street analysts were worried about another strong showing by Sanders, a democratic socialist. A Raymond James team said a “Sanders nomination/contested convention increases the likelihood of a Trump victory and potentially even an all-Republican government” — and that’s “a positive for stocks SPX, +0.41% DJIA, +0.72% .”
“The good news for investors who are worried about a President Sanders is that the close finishes so far are ideal for Mayor Bloomberg, whose huge financial advantage will be particularly valuable in a few weeks, when states start voting in groups, rather than one at a time,” said Stephen Farnsworth, a political science professor at the University of Mary Washington in Fredericksburg, Va.
“Investors may also be pleased by the strength shown by more moderate candidates, like Mayor Buttigieg and Sen. Klobuchar, who together demonstrate that many Democratic primary voters prefer a less radical candidate than some in the race.”
Farnsworth also said that the close finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire “suggest that this nomination contest is just getting started.”
