Capitol Report: How the stock market has reacted to State of the Union speeches

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President Donald Trump delivers the State of the Union address to the House of Representatives on Feb. 5, 2019.

President Donald Trump is scheduled to give his third State of the Union address on Tuesday, and the annual speech could come as the Senate is still mulling whether to keep him in office following his impeachment by the House in December.

As of Thursday afternoon, it appeared that the Senate could reach a verdict in Trump’s trial on Friday or Saturday. A pivotal vote on calling more witnesses could prolong the proceedings, but Trump is ultimately expected to be acquitted, with Republicans in control of the chamber.

Trump’s speech last year didn’t set the stock market on fire, but that wasn’t unusual. Since 1961, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.43%  has made gains of more than 1% on the day after State of the Union addresses or similar speeches by presidents only five times. In 2018, the Dow industrials rose about 0.3% after Trump’s first State of the Union, and after his 2019 speech, the average dropped 0.08%.

The Dow did climb sharply after Trump’s first speech to a joint session of Congress, which wasn’t technically a State of the Union.

The day after President Barack Obama’s final State of the Union address, the Dow fell 2.21%. That was the biggest drop since after Bill Clinton’s 2000 address. At the time of Clinton’s final address, the market was gripped by fears of Federal Reserve tightening. But stocks tied to Clinton, such as large-cap drug stocks, rose.

Including Obama’s Feb. 24, 2009, address to a joint session of Congress, the Dow dropped after five of eight of the 44th president’s big speeches to the country. Stocks rose after three.

Here’s a look at the Dow’s past performance, using figures compiled by Dow Jones Market Data going back to 1961.