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‘My guess is if we’re going to rationalize a market that’s pretty stretched right here, it’s going to happen right now. We have about a third of the S&P 500 reporting. We’re going to see the losers lose a whole lot more than we’ve seen in a while. The index itself could probably pull back 3% to 5%.’
That’s longtime stock-market bull and National Securities chief market strategist Art Hogan offering up his bearish stance in a CNBC interview ahead of what looks to be a very busy week of trading.
He said the S&P 500 SPX, -0.90% could see a pullback of as much as 5%.
“Stocks are relatively priced for perfection, and you tend to have a bit of an overreaction to bad news or in-line news when that happens,” he continued.
With a crowded slate of earnings on tap, Hogan warned that it will probably be the biggest winners getting the biggest haircuts.
“There are five technology names that are driving a good chunk of the movement in the S&P. On the other side, you see the utilities index,” he explained. “The index is trading at 25 times and it’s throwing out a dividend that’s less than 3%. Both of those numbers are historically stretched. This is an index that usually trades at 16 times and has about a 5% dividend.”
Apple AAPL, -0.29% , which reports on Tuesday, is one of those big tech names. The stock has more than doubled over the past year amid optimism about new services like streaming video and the potential for a wave of iPhone upgrades later this year. Tesla TSLA, -1.29% is also on deck this week.
Hogan, however, isn’t completely bearish on the future, even though he says his cash levels are higher than normal. He said he sees the next pullback on the S&P as a big buying opportunity for investors.
Watch the interview:
Hogan’s call for a rough week is looking prescient so far, with futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average YM00, -0.94% , S&P 500 ES00, -1.00% and Nasdaq Composite NQ00, -1.37% all pointing to a solidly lower open.
