The Dow will hit a historic 30,000 sooner than you think

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Dear subscribers, welcome to the inaugural Bull Sheet newsletter.

We’ll be with you every day the major U.S. markets are trading, delivering to your inbox daily insights and observations about the issues moving the global markets, from Hong Kong to Wall Street and beyond. 

I’m Bernhard Warner, Fortune’s global editor of finance and investing, and I’ll be your pilot most mornings.

On this trip, you’re encouraged to talk to the driver. So tell me what you’re thinking: what you like about this newsletter and what you’re just not buying. I want you to think of this as a community. Our community. So drop me a line whenever at bullsheet@fortune.com or by replying to this email.

When we were putting together this newsletter, we wanted to capture the spirit of these historic markets. There’s only one word for that. And voila, Bull Sheet was born. I guess that makes us all Bull Sheeters. I promise you though: Bull Sheet will be no BS🐂

What will you find in Bull Sheet?

I’m a data geek, and so I’ll look for the underlying numbers behind the ups and downs of the market. I’ll take the data and turn what catches my eye into charts. So, expect a nice visual in each newsletter—scroll below for today’s.

Let’s get right into it, shall we? 

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The bull market, by the numbers

  • Today, we have four companies—Amazon, Apple, Alphabet and Microsoft—with $1 trillion valuations. A fifth, Saudi Aramco, is flirting (again) with $2 trillion. (Speaking of Aramco, if any of you got in on that IPO, definitely drop me a line.) 
  • According to PwC, the combined market cap of the world’s 100 largest companies topped $21 trillion last year. In the past decade, the biggest of the big saw their value nearly double. 
  • And then there’s the Dow, which, after Friday’s close, is a mere 651.90 points away from the big 30,000. (I can’t be the only one who remembers all the fuss, back in 1999, of the countdown to Dow 10,000—can I? A reminder: General Electric, Walmart and American Express were among the names that led us into uncharted territory that day.)  

I ran the numbers on the Dow the other day, looking all the way back to its inauguration in 1885. It took 87 years—or 21,652 trading days—to finally crack 1,000 in 1972. Meanwhile, the recent 9,000-point leap, from 20,000 to 29,000, was a breeze, taking slightly under three years

Here’s a look at the major Dow milestones over its 135-year history.

So who here has a bet on when we’ll hit 30,000? Hit me up. I’ll do a nice little shout-out to whomever comes closest.

Bernhard Warner
@BernhardWarner
Bernhard.Warner@Fortune.com