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Investors may be ready to squeeze some fresh records out of Wall Street equities in the countdown to 2019’s finish.
Stock futures are rising as the rest of a short holiday trading week gets under way. To be sure, we have come some ways since last year’s Christmas Eve trading nightmare, with the Nasdaq Composite COMP, +0.08% up nearly 35% and the S&P 500 SPX, -0.02% up by about 28% in the year to date with just four full trading sessions left in the year.
But not all stocks and sectors have been having such a terrific time of it, which brings us to our call of the day, from Crescat Capital’s global macro analyst Octavio ‘Tavi’ Costa, who says opportunity may be knocking for one sector that’s been down in the dumps for a while.
Oil-service stocks “have never looked so cheap,” Costa said in a recent tweet.
Costa shows us a chart highlighting one measure of value — the price-to-sales ratio, which is calculated by dividing a company’s market capitalization by total sales. He says that ratio is now below previous periods over the past 20 years that preceded major bottoms for the oil-service sector.
“Commodities are historically undervalued, plenty value to be found,” he adds.
Costa’s call follows a particularly rough patch for oil-services companies, as big producers have scaled back on new projects. Indeed, J.P. Morgan analysts told clients earlier this month that the sector is facing its third straight year of negative 40% underperformance, compared against the overall stock market.
Other analysts have expressed some bluishness about beaten-down oil, including Deutsche Bank analyst Chris Snyder. Last month, he made the case that a rebound in U.S. shale exploration in the second half of 2020 should help companies that service the big energy names.
Snyder recommends companies that tap into international oil development, such as Schlumberger SLB, -0.34% and TechnipFMC FTI, -0.38%, over those that focus more on the U.S. side — Transocean RIG, +0.15% and Patterson-UTI Energy PTEN, -1.31%.
oil_vs_SPX
Another way to play the sector, is the iShares U.S. Oil Equipment & Services ETF IEZ, -0.15% and the Invesco Dynamic Oil & Gas Services ETF PXJ, +0.27% are a couple of exchange traded funds that tap into this sector.
It is important to note that headwinds for the sector could be severe, despite the optimism, with J.P. Morgan analysts remaining skeptical about 2020 and extending downside risks into 2021.
The market
Dow YM00, +0.10%, S&P 500 ES00, +0.14% and Nasdaq NQ00, +0.12% are modestly higher, while oil CL00, +0.08% and gold GC00, +0.37% are up. European markets are closed for one more day, while Asian markets ADOW, +0.03% ADOW, +0.03% finished mostly higher.
Read: Here’s when markets will be closed for the Christmas and New Year holidays
The buzz
Watch shares of Target TGT, +0.16%, Amazon AMZN, -0.21%, Walmart WMT, +0.40% and other retailers on this busy post-Christmas shopping day. Amazon for one called the holiday season “record breaking,” in a roundup of holiday spending. On that note, a Mastercard SpendingPulse survey revealed online purchases climbed 18.8% for Nov. 1 through Christmas Eve from a year earlier, versus 1.2% for in-store sales.
President Trump told reporters on Christmas Eve that he and Chinese President Xi Jinping will have a signing ceremony for the first phase of a trade deal.
We’ve gone one piece of economic data coming that’s worth noting — weekly jobless claims.
Random reads
Democratic presidential contender Michael Bloomberg cut ties with contractor that used prisoners to make calls for campaign
A massive Christmas Eve fire destroyed 200 homes in a historic Chilean city
#WhyImGladChristmasIsOver is trending. You don’t say?
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