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Good morning, Term Sheet readers. Polina here, back from
vacation.
In today’s guest column, Tusk Ventures founder Bradley
Tusk predicts how the tech community will grapple with the policy fights that
await in 2020. (Disclosure: Tusk Ventures is invested in or works with several
companies that operate in the categories mentioned in this column, including
Handy, Eaze, FanDuel, Lyric, Boulder Care, and Kodiak.)
The only thing we know for certain about 2020 is that it
will be complete and utter chaos. Washington will dominate the conversation,
but as usual, most of tech regulation will still take place at the state and
municipal level. A host of challenges and opportunities lurk right around the
corner as state legislative sessions resume next month.
Here are 10 regulatory issues to have on your radar:
ANTITRUST:
This issue will feel like it’s everywhere all at once — and
it will be. Breaking up giants like Amazon, Facebook and Google will be a major
topic on the campaign trail, a constant focus for the Federal Trade Commission
and the Department of Justice, a big press opportunity for dozens of state
attorney generals around the country, and yet another issue for Congress to
talk about (but not actually act upon). And even if Washington is in gridlock,
the European Union and the UK’s Competition and Markets Authority have become
more and more aggressive on competition.
PRIVACY:
Congress will eventually enact a standard for federal
privacy. But until then, states are figuring it out for themselves (California,
Maine and Nevada already have). Every tech company wishing to protect its
ability to monetize user data is going to have to get down in the muck in
virtually every jurisdiction. Given the politics and polling on this issue, the
odds of their succeeding are low.
WORKER CLASSIFICATION:
New York, New Jersey and Illinois are already taking up
their own versions of California’s Assembly Bill 5, which aims to turn
contractors and freelancers into permanent employees. This has recently gained
traction within tech, with Handy CEO Oisin Hanrahan calling for full-time
employee status for people working more than 25 hours per week for a single
platform. Uber, Lyft and Door Dash will have their hands full, with labor,
progressives and a bevy of smaller platforms all lined up against them in
fights across the country. And they’ll need to win their statewide referendum
in California to overturn AB5.
CANNABIS:
Last year, attempts at legalizing recreational cannabis
succeeded in relatively conservative states like Illinois and Michigan, but
failed in traditionally liberal states like New York and New Jersey. Both
states will try again, possibly in tandem with Connecticut and Pennsylvania.
The issue will continue to pop up in state legislatures and through ballot
initiatives around the nation (Arizona, Florida, Missouri, South Dakota). I
predict that Congress will debate — but fail to do anything — over providing a
safe harbor to those using or handling cannabis in states where it already is
legal.
SPORTS BETTING:
New Jersey’s tremendous success with sports betting will lead even more states to follow suit in 2020. Last year, six more states legalized sports betting: Illinois, Tennessee, New Hampshire, Montana, Maine and North Carolina. E-sports legalization will become a real political issue in a handful of progressive jurisdictions too.
FACIAL RECOGNITION:
Three cities – Oakland, San Francisco and Somerville – have
already banned government use of facial recognition, and it won’t stop there.
Look for legislation in big states such as Michigan, Massachusetts, California,
New York and New Jersey. This will be a very popular issue both on the far left
and the far right. Facial recognition bans can have broad ramifications beyond
the privacy risk from law enforcement.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL REGULATION:
Airbnb’s defeat in Jersey City last month will spur a new
round of proposed restrictions on short-term rentals around the nation. This
issue tends to move in either direction in terms of political momentum, and
right now, that momentum has shifted away from Airbnb. As Airbnb goes public
next spring, it will especially want to avoid all distractions. (Disclosure:
Lyric is a portfolio company of ours and Airbnb is the company’s largest
investor.)
OPIOID ADDICTION:
Government will look to partner with the tech sector to
figure out how to combat the crisis, since little else seems to be working. A
host of new startups are using telemedicine to help opioid addicts prevent
relapsing. Any sign of success will lead tech to opportunities to partner with
state and local governments, Medicare and Medicaid, health insurers and others.
AUTONOMOUS TRUCKING:
Autonomous cars are a political hot button. Trucks are not.
Given the national shortage of truckers, and the lengths some truckers have to
go to just to stay awake on the road, the need for a safer alternative is clear
and generally accepted. That’s why states will follow the lead of Texas and
Florida and allow autonomous truck testing on major highways as well as create
dedicated lanes for autonomous truck delivery.
VOTING:
In 2019, Utah, Colorado, Washington and Oregon joined West
Virginia to allow some constituents to vote on their phones over the
blockchain. Given the polarization and dysfunction plaguing every level of
government, the need to dramatically increase turnout and change the incentives
given to politicians is greater than ever. I believe more jurisdictions will
offer mobile voting in 2020, more voters will be allowed to participate, and
more startups will work on mobile voting technology. (Disclosure: Tusk
Ventures funds and runs the Mobile Voting Project out of Tusk Philanthropies.)
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