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The U.S. stock market had lackluster third-quarter performance. Here’s how the broad indexes fared for those three months and the first three quarters of 2019, along with long-term returns:
| Index | Total return – third quarter, 2019 | Total return – 2019 through Sept. 30 | Total return – 3 years | Total return – 5 years | Total return – 10 years | Total return – 15 years |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 1.2% | 15.4% | 47.0% | 60.2% | 183.1% | 164.1% |
| S&P 500 | 1.7% | 20.6% | 45.8% | 67.3% | 246.7% | 264.7% |
| S&P 400 Mid Cap Index | -0.1% | 17.9% | 30.9% | 53.0% | 226.5% | 307.5% |
| S&P Small Cap 600 Index | -0.2% | 13.5% | 30.7% | 60.2% | 240.1% | 291.1% |
| Nasdaq Composite Index | 21.5% | 0.2% | 55.6% | 88.4% | 322.2% | 391.3% |
| Nasdaq-100 Index | 1.3% | 23.4% | 64.3% | 102.8% | 404.9% | 530.1% |
| Source: FactSet | ||||||
The financial media and many professional investors agree that we are at a late stage for the bull market that (arguably) started at the post-financial-crisis bottom on March 9, 2009.
One sign of a frothy market is the seemingly new perception that assumptions about valuations for certain startup companies have been fantastic. The WeWork farce — leading to the ouster, sort of, of co-founder and CEO Adam Neumann — is a telling example. Another is Endeavor’s second failure this year to take itself public. Peloton PTON, -0.55% actually made it to market, but the shares started trading on Sept. 26 at $27, two dollars below its initial offering price.
Then again, the world remains awash with cash as central banks in the developed world continue to be extraordinarily accommodative as they attempt to stave off possible recessions. Bonds with negative yields to maturity total more than $17 billion, according to Bloomberg. That and the 1.74% yield for 10-year U.S. Treasury notes TMUBMUSD10Y, +4.47% make the 1.98% dividend yield for the S&P 500 attractive.
So we cannot predict when this bull market will end.
Here’s how the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 have performed:
| S&P 500 sector | Total return – third quarter, 2019 | Total return – 2019 through Sept. 30 | Total return – 3 years | Total return – 5 years | Total return – 10 years | Total return – 15 years |
| Utilities | 9.3% | 25.4% | 47% | 83% | 225% | 356% |
| Real Estate | 7.7% | 29.7% | 34% | 73% | 295% | 296% |
| Consumer Staples | 6.1% | 23.3% | 26% | 56% | 219% | 330% |
| Information Technology | 3.3% | 31.4% | 84% | 131% | 385% | 483% |
| Communications Services | 2.2% | 21.7% | 10% | 29% | 148% | 173% |
| Financials | 2.0% | 19.6% | 54% | 65% | 178% | 68% |
| Industrials | 1.0% | 22.6% | 38% | 59% | 253% | 247% |
| Consumer Discretionary | 0.5% | 22.5% | 55% | 93% | 409% | 380% |
| Materials | -0.1% | 17.1% | 30% | 30% | 142% | 199% |
| Health Care | -2.2% | 5.6% | 32% | 53% | 278% | 313% |
| Energy | -6.3% | 6.0% | -8% | -23% | 39% | 124% |
| Source: FactSet | ||||||
With interest rates declining dramatically during the third quarter as the Federal Reserve reversed course, it may not be a surprise to see that the utilities sector (with its generally high dividend yields) performed best during the third quarter. But look at the 15-year returns — the utilities sector ranks third.
The Dow 30
On that note, here’s how all 30 components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.36% have performed this year and during the third quarter, along with some information about analysts’ opinions of the stocks. All total returns include reinvested dividends:
| Company | Ticker | Total return – 2019 | Total return – third quarter | Share ‘buy’ ratings | Closing price – Sep. 30 | Consensus price target | Implied 12-month upside potential |
| Apple Inc. | AAPL, +2.35% | 44% | 14% | 50% | $223.97 | $225.52 | 1% |
| Microsoft Corp. | MSFT, +0.94% | 38% | 4% | 91% | $139.03 | $155.39 | 12% |
| Procter & Gamble Co. | PG, -0.15% | 38% | 14% | 52% | $124.38 | $125.19 | 1% |
| Home Depot Inc. | HD, +0.94% | 38% | 12% | 59% | $232.02 | $228.89 | -1% |
| International Business Machines Corp. | IBM, +1.52% | 33% | 7% | 32% | $145.42 | $153.79 | 6% |
| Visa Inc. Class A | V, -1.14% | 31% | -1% | 90% | $172.01 | $201.56 | 17% |
| United Technologies Corp. | UTX, +0.10% | 30% | 5% | 78% | $136.52 | $156.87 | 15% |
| Walmart Inc. | WMT, +0.19% | 29% | 8% | 60% | $118.68 | $120.71 | 2% |
| Nike Inc. Class B | NKE, +1.74% | 28% | 12% | 75% | $93.92 | $101.46 | 8% |
| Travelers Companies Inc. | TRV, +0.47% | 26% | 0% | 14% | $148.69 | $150.19 | 1% |
| Goldman Sachs Group Inc. | GS, -0.83% | 26% | 2% | 46% | $207.23 | $234.30 | 13% |
| American Express Co. | AXP, -0.26% | 25% | -4% | 47% | $118.28 | $133.13 | 13% |
| J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. | JPM, -0.03% | 23% | 6% | 48% | $117.69 | $120.09 | 2% |
| McDonald’s Corp. | MCD, +0.73% | 23% | 4% | 77% | $214.71 | $233.62 | 9% |
| Boeing Co. | BA, -0.62% | 20% | 5% | 61% | $380.47 | $429.55 | 13% |
| Walt Disney Co. | DIS, +0.28% | 20% | -6% | 78% | $130.32 | $155.85 | 20% |
| Coca-Cola Co. | KO, +0.24% | 18% | 8% | 54% | $54.44 | $57.64 | 6% |
| Cisco Systems Inc. | CSCO, +1.17% | 16% | -9% | 64% | $49.41 | $55.57 | 12% |
| Merck & Co. Inc. | MRK, +1.53% | 12% | 1% | 88% | $84.18 | $96.07 | 14% |
| Chevron Corp. | CVX, +0.00% | 12% | -4% | 71% | $118.60 | $137.64 | 16% |
| Intel Corp. | INTC, +1.48% | 12% | 8% | 30% | $51.53 | $53.90 | 5% |
| Verizon Communications Inc. | VZ, +0.10% | 11% | 7% | 36% | $60.36 | $60.75 | 1% |
| Exxon Mobil Corp. | XOM, -1.22% | 7% | -7% | 24% | $70.61 | $79.90 | 13% |
| Johnson & Johnson | JNJ, +0.61% | 2% | -6% | 56% | $129.38 | $149.56 | 16% |
| Caterpillar Inc. | CAT, -0.22% | 1% | -7% | 46% | $126.31 | $142.74 | 13% |
| 3M Co. | MMM, -0.08% | -12% | -4% | 18% | $164.40 | $175.73 | 7% |
| UnitedHealth Group Inc. | UNH, +0.96% | -12% | -11% | 88% | $217.32 | $293.04 | 35% |
| Pfizer Inc. | PFE, -0.80% | -15% | -16% | 43% | $35.93 | $42.40 | 18% |
| Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. | WBA, +1.65% | -17% | 2% | 13% | $55.31 | $58.19 | 5% |
| Dow Inc. | DOW, +1.23% | N/A | -2% | 46% | $47.65 | $54.39 | 14% |
| Source: FactSet | |||||||
You can click on the tickers for more about each company.
The “new” Dow Inc. DOW, +1.23% has no year-to-date total return. The stock is down 1% (with reinvested dividends) since it began trading separately from the temporarily combined DowDuPont on March 20.
S&P 500
Here are this year’s 10 best performers among the S&P 500 SPX, +0.50% :
| Company | Ticker | Total return – 2019 | Total return – third quarter | Share ‘buy’ ratings | Closing price – Sep. 30 | Consensus price target | Implied 12-month upside potential |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. | CMG, +2.64% | 95% | 15% | 38% | $840.47 | $783.89 | -7% |
| KLA Corp. | KLAC, +0.61% | 82% | 36% | 65% | $159.45 | $162.43 | 2% |
| Lam Research Corp. | LRCX, +0.95% | 73% | 24% | 54% | $231.11 | $230.59 | 0% |
| Copart Inc. | CPRT, +0.78% | 68% | 7% | 36% | $80.33 | $84.75 | 6% |
| Equinix Inc. | EQIX, +0.03% | 66% | 15% | 92% | $576.80 | $565.77 | -2% |
| Target Corp. | TGT, +0.74% | 66% | 24% | 58% | $106.91 | $112.55 | 5% |
| Coty Inc. Class A | COTY, -0.19% | 66% | -21% | 20% | $10.51 | $11.19 | 6% |
| Leidos Holdings Inc. | LDOS, +1.01% | 65% | 8% | 50% | $85.88 | $90.18 | 5% |
| Western Digital Corp. | WDC, -1.41% | 65% | 25% | 43% | $59.64 | $63.35 | 6% |
| Tyson Foods Inc. Class A | TSN, +1.10% | 64% | 7% | 77% | $86.14 | $95.09 | 10% |
| Source: FactSet | |||||||
And here are the 10 worst performers among the S&P 500:
| Company | Ticker | Total return – 2019 | Total return – third quarter | Share ‘buy’ ratings | Closing price – Sep. 30 | Consensus price target | Implied 12-month upside potential |
| Abiomed Inc. | ABMD, +1.14% | -45% | -32% | 67% | $177.89 | $235.00 | 32% |
| Macy’s Inc. | M, +1.64% | -45% | -26% | 13% | $15.54 | $18.50 | 19% |
| Nektar Therapeutics | NKTR, +1.76% | -45% | -49% | 54% | $18.22 | $39.45 | 117% |
| DXC Technology Co. | DXC, -0.94% | -44% | -46% | 47% | $29.50 | $51.87 | 76% |
| Concho Resources Inc. | CXO, -1.31% | -34% | -34% | 78% | $67.90 | $115.32 | 70% |
| Kraft Heinz Co. | KHC, +0.34% | -32% | -9% | 11% | $27.94 | $28.59 | 2% |
| Gap Inc. | GPS, +1.05% | -30% | -2% | 13% | $17.36 | $19.58 | 13% |
| Mosaic Co. | MOS, +1.18% | -29% | -18% | 68% | $20.50 | $27.89 | 36% |
| TripAdvisor Inc. | TRIP, +0.65% | -28% | -16% | 29% | $38.68 | $48.62 | 26% |
| Mylan NV | MYL, +2.54% | -28% | 4% | 72% | $19.78 | $26.80 | 35% |
| Source: FactSet | |||||||
S&P Mid-Cap
Here are the best performing components of the S&P 400 Mid-Cap Index MID, +0.66% this year:
| Company | Ticker | Total return – 2019 | Total return – third quarter | Share ‘buy’ ratings | Closing price – Sep. 30 | Consensus price target | Implied 12-month upside potential |
| Pilgrim’s Pride Corp. | PPC, +2.35% | 107% | 26% | 57% | $32.05 | $34.00 | 6% |
| Versum Materials Inc. | VSM, +0.92% | 92% | 3% | 0% | $52.93 | $51.00 | -4% |
| Manhattan Associates Inc. | MANH, +1.33% | 90% | 16% | 60% | $80.67 | $94.00 | 17% |
| World Fuel Services Corp. | INT, +2.20% | 88% | 11% | 67% | $39.94 | $43.00 | 8% |
| Cypress Semiconductor Corp. | CY, +0.56% | 87% | 5% | 10% | $23.34 | $23.78 | 2% |
| Tempur Sealy International Inc. | TPX, +4.96% | 86% | 5% | 55% | $77.20 | $89.22 | 16% |
| Teradyne Inc. | TER, +0.89% | 86% | 21% | 19% | $57.91 | $55.00 | -5% |
| Universal Display Corp. | OLED, -0.71% | 80% | -11% | 33% | $167.90 | $211.63 | 26% |
| KB Home | KBH, +4.52% | 79% | 33% | 65% | $34.00 | $36.00 | 6% |
| Caesars Entertainment Corp. | CZR, +1.17% | 72% | -1% | 22% | $11.66 | $12.34 | 6% |
| Source: FactSet | |||||||
And the worst 10:
| Company | Ticker | Total return – 2019 | Total return – third quarter | Share ‘buy’ ratings | Closing price – Sep. 30 | Consensus price target | Implied 12-month upside potential |
| Green Dot Corp. Class A | GDOT, +0.08% | -68% | -48% | 40% | $25.25 | $37.46 | 48% |
| Uniti Group Inc. | UNIT, +0.13% | -49% | -18% | 11% | $7.77 | $8.29 | 7% |
| Chemours Co. | CC, +2.96% | -45% | -36% | 38% | $14.94 | $20.58 | 38% |
| Southwestern Energy Co. | SWN, +0.00% | -43% | -39% | 4% | $1.93 | $2.60 | 35% |
| EQT Corp. | EQT, -5.25% | -43% | -33% | 57% | $10.64 | $17.13 | 61% |
| Owens-Illinois Inc. | OI, +2.39% | -40% | -40% | 36% | $10.27 | $15.46 | 51% |
| Fluor Corp. | FLR, +3.07% | -39% | -43% | 38% | $19.13 | $25.55 | 34% |
| Healthcare Services Group Inc. | HCSG, +3.36% | -38% | -19% | 50% | $24.29 | $31.43 | 29% |
| Oasis Petroleum Inc. | OAS, +0.00% | -37% | -39% | 33% | $3.46 | $5.28 | 53% |
| CNX Resources Corp. | CNX, +1.54% | -36% | -1% | 44% | $7.26 | $11.44 | 58% |
| Source:FactSet | |||||||
S&P Small-Cap
Here are the 10 best-performing components of the S&P Small-Cap 600 Index SML, +0.15% so far in 2019:
| Company | Ticker | Total return – 2019 | Total return – third quarter | Share ‘buy’ ratings | Closing price – Sep. 30 | Consensus price target | Implied 12-month upside potential |
| Diebold Nixdorf Inc. | DBD, -1.93% | 350% | 22% | 40% | $11.20 | $14.67 | 31% |
| Avon Products Inc. | AVP, -3.51% | 189% | 13% | 17% | $4.40 | $4.00 | -9% |
| Medicines Co. | MDCO, +3.73% | 161% | 37% | 93% | $50.00 | $64.38 | 29% |
| SolarEdge Technologies Inc. | SEDG, +2.00% | 139% | 34% | 73% | $83.72 | $89.00 | 6% |
| Sonic Automotive Inc. Class A | SAH, +2.18% | 132% | 35% | 13% | $31.41 | $25.71 | -18% |
| Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc. | ARWR, +4.53% | 127% | 6% | 80% | $28.18 | $37.50 | 33% |
| Lannett Co. Inc. | LCI, +1.08% | 126% | 85% | 0% | $11.20 | $10.50 | -6% |
| Shake Shack Inc. Class A | SHAK, +2.64% | 116% | 36% | 33% | $98.04 | $82.85 | -15% |
| TopBuild Corp. | BLD, +2.55% | 114% | 17% | 63% | $96.43 | $99.00 | 3% |
| Innovative Industrial Properties Inc. | IIPR, -3.52% | 107% | -25% | 67% | $92.37 | $164.00 | 78% |
And the 10 worst performers:
| Company | Ticker | Total return – 2019 | Total return – third quarter | Share ‘buy’ ratings | Closing price – Sep. 30 | Consensus price target | Implied 12-month upside potential |
| Assertio Therapeutics Inc. | ASRT, -2.29% | -65% | -63% | 33% | $1.28 | $5.50 | 330% |
| Tailored Brands Inc. | TLRD, +1.85% | -65% | -21% | 0% | $4.40 | $5.50 | 25% |
| Whiting Petroleum Corp. | WLL, +1.01% | -65% | -57% | 26% | $8.03 | $17.31 | 116% |
| Arlo Technologies Inc. | ARLO, -2.01% | -66% | -15% | 25% | $3.41 | $5.67 | 66% |
| Valaris PLC Class A | VAL, +0.00% | -66% | -44% | 44% | $4.81 | $11.32 | 135% |
| Ring Energy Inc. | REI, +0.00% | -68% | -50% | 88% | $1.64 | $5.40 | 229% |
| McDermott International Inc. | MDR, +1.00% | -69% | -79% | 25% | $2.02 | $8.29 | 310% |
| Dean Foods Co. | DF, -1.69% | -70% | 26% | 0% | $1.16 | $1.40 | 21% |
| Unit Corp. | UNT, -1.17% | -76% | -62% | 20% | $3.38 | $8.40 | 149% |
| Acorda Therapeutics Inc. | ACOR, -4.33% | -82% | -63% | 11% | $2.87 | $9.75 | 240% |
| Source:FactSet | |||||||
Nasdaq-100
Here are the 10 best performers this year among components of the Nasdaq-100 Index NDX, +0.88% :
| Company | Ticker | Total return – 2019 | Total return – third quarter | Share ‘buy’ ratings | Closing price – Sep. 30 | Consensus price target | Implied 12-month upside potential |
| MercadoLibre Inc. | MELI, +1.79% | 88% | -10% | 62% | $551.23 | $688.16 | 25% |
| KLA Corp. | KLAC, +0.61% | 82% | 36% | 65% | $159.45 | $162.43 | 2% |
| Lam Research Corp. | LRCX, +0.95% | 73% | 24% | 54% | $231.11 | $230.59 | 0% |
| Western Digital Corp. | WDC, -1.41% | 65% | 25% | 43% | $59.64 | $63.35 | 6% |
| Synopsys Inc. | SNPS, +0.76% | 63% | 7% | 82% | $137.25 | $155.50 | 13% |
| Cintas Corp. | CTAS, +0.74% | 60% | 13% | 50% | $268.10 | $271.33 | 1% |
| Lululemon Athletica Inc. | LULU, +1.48% | 58% | 7% | 59% | $192.53 | $212.46 | 10% |
| Advanced Micro Devices Inc. | AMD, +0.94% | 57% | -5% | 35% | $28.99 | $32.73 | 13% |
| Celgene Corp. | CELG, +0.46% | 55% | 7% | 12% | $99.30 | $99.00 | 0% |
| Applied Materials Inc. | AMAT, +0.95% | 55% | 12% | 68% | $49.90 | $53.52 | 7% |
| Source: FactSet | |||||||
And the 10 worst performers:
| Company | Ticker | Total return – 2019 | Total return – third quarter | Share ‘buy’ ratings | Closing price – Sep. 30 | Consensus price target | Implied 12-month upside potential |
| Baidu Inc. ADR Class A | BIDU, +1.53% | -35% | -12% | 59% | $102.76 | $135.27 | 32% |
| Kraft Heinz Company | KHC, +0.34% | -32% | -9% | 11% | $27.94 | $28.59 | 2% |
| Mylan NV | MYL, +2.54% | -28% | 4% | 72% | $19.78 | $26.80 | 35% |
| Tesla Inc. | TSLA, -0.52% | -28% | 8% | 36% | $240.87 | $270.02 | 12% |
| Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc. | REGN, +1.44% | -26% | -11% | 43% | $277.40 | $389.00 | 40% |
| Biogen Inc. | BIIB, +1.13% | -23% | 0% | 21% | $232.82 | $257.41 | 11% |
| BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. | BMRN, -1.33% | -21% | -21% | 76% | $67.40 | $118.90 | 76% |
| Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. | WBA, +1.65% | -17% | 2% | 13% | $55.31 | $58.19 | 5% |
| American Airlines Group Inc. | AAL, -0.15% | -15% | -17% | 52% | $26.97 | $37.50 | 39% |
| Align Technology Inc. | ALGN, +2.89% | -14% | -34% | 67% | $180.92 | $263.00 | 45% |
| Source: FactSet | |||||||
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